AL GOV 2006: Early polls

An early poll came out last week and the results are very interesting. It polled roughly 450 Alabamians for their choices in numerous permutations of the four leading candidates.

Mobile Register Poll. 2/14-17. MoE 4.6% (1/17-20 results)
Bob Riley (R-incumbent) 35
Lucy Baxley (D) 39

Roy Moore (R) 38
Lucy Baxley (D) 44

Riley (R) 43 (46)
Don Siegelman (D) 34 (36)

Moore (R) 44 (40)
Siegelman (D) 34 (39)
cribbed from ADP Blog

Riley is the current Governor, Baxley is the current Lt. Governor (yes, those offices are elected separately), Siegelman was Governor prior to Riley and His Holiness needs no introduction. Go read the article, it does quite a fine job of analysis. Highlights:

  • Siegelman has been and continues to be under federal investigation for allegations of corruption during his gubenatorial term.

  • Of the four, Moore had the weakest in-party support in a general election (51% vs. Baxley)

  • If the Defense of the Sanctity of Marriage amendment referendum coincides with the Republican primaries, Moore could see a large enough bump to beat Riley.

  • None of the four have officially announced their candidacy.

Interesting footnote: no Alabama governor has served two consecutive terms since Wallace. The only incumbent to win re-election in that period was Guy Hunt. Hunt was convicted of illegally using campaign funds to pay off personal debts and removed from office in 1993.

Also interesting to note that until 1968, incumbents weren't allow to run for a second term, thus making Wallace and Hunt the only incumbent governors to win re-election. A consitutional amendment set term limits to two consecutive terms (though it does allow for non-consecutive terms - Wallace served again from 1983-87).


Pam said...

Howdy. Where does Baxley fall on the political spectrum? I'm assuming that she's also a cultural conservative (did anyone of stature oppose the marriage amendment?). Mr. Ten Commandments is truly a scary man, though I gather that he doesn't come across as a fire-breather, which actually makes him more dangerous.

Pierce said...

Good question re: Baxley. I'll research and see what I can come up with and post a follow up.

As far as opposition to the marriage amendment, it's already wizzed through the Senate (35-0). The House has 2 bills, HB1 and HB59. HB59 passed on 2/8/05 with a vote of 85-7. More later.

And thanks for coming by, Pam!